Tomorrowland

In the year 2050 I will be 60 years old. It seems like a long time from now but I know the date will suddenly slam me in the face along with familiar phrase, “where did the time go?” It seems like all the predictions of today are framed around the year 2050: the global population will double, the earth will be 3 degrees warmer, we will need millions more pounds of food, Donald Trump will be in his 8th term as Supreme Leader. It makes me scared because none of the predictions are positive and I worry about the abuse we are putting upon our planet. Obviously, global warming is a big deal and something everyone needs to be educated about. To better understand how we have caused this precarious situation I read The Prize and The Quest by Daniel Yergin. I already talked about The Prize  which summarized the last 150 years of oil in a previous postThe Quest talks about the oil industry of today and how we need to transition from oil to more earth-friendly sources of power. Using the information that I learned from The Quest, I want to write a letter to my future 60 year old self…

“Hey you older frick! I hope that you have had an excellent 34 years since the time this blog post was written. Is the world as crappy as we thought it would be? I hope Justin Beaver isn’t running for President. Anyways, I want to write some of my predictions for what 2050 looks like. You are currently driving an all electric car that is charged by solar panels installed at the house; ideally, there is a very high efficiency battery that powers all your electrical needs throughout the day even when there is no sun. Charging the car is fast and easy because stations are ubiquitous across the country. Utility bills are nearly non-existent because the house is built to optimize heating and cooling throughout the year. Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions are now decreasing each year and there are large government sponsored initiatives to remove the existing carbon from the atmosphere and oceans. Sadly, i’m guessing these initiatives only came after drastic damages to worldwide agriculture, coastal property, and most importantly-Wall Street’s trading computers. Are there still coral reefs? Do we still have our beautiful snowy days? Will our grandchildren have a promising future? I want to believe that the US now receives most of its power from solar, wind, biomass, nuclear, and natural gas. The Middle East is a center for banking and finance, now that their revenues come mostly from overseas investment funds. Maybe there is less turmoil with terrorism because oil no longer funds their operations. The developing nations in 2016 are probably much-more developed by now and may be the last countries depending on oil. Society as a whole is much more concerned about conservation and there are concerted efforts to bring carbon levels back to pre-industrial averages. The whole world has united in its effort to reverse global warming and they predict by 2100 that the earth will finally have normal levels of greenhouse gases. What an awesome time to be alive!  Of course i’m sure there are many problems in 2050: poverty, crime, starvation, and illness to name a few. Heck Kim Kardashian still probably has a reality TV show. At least, the climate issue is being addressed and you will have many more beautiful years on a healing planet earth. 

What can we do in 2016 to help reverse Global Warming? Below are three practical steps.

  1. Offset your carbon footprint by supporting programs that aim to reverse global warming: carbonfund.org
  2. Update your house with energy efficient appliances, lighting, and insulation. It will safe you money every month and decrease energy usage significantly.
  3. Lose weight: when you weigh less you use less fuel, eat less energy intensive food, and you just feel better. Win-Win.

 

The Hydrocarbon Man

Could you imagine your life without petroleum? Our daily lives from the food we eat to the cars we drive depend on the oil industry. Without oil, we would not have our comfortable life of abundance and hyper-connectivity. I always knew oil was important and that it had influenced a lot of our world politics in the last century. I never knew the full extent of how oil shaped the hydrocarbon man until I read the The Prize by Daniel Yergin. This book is 800 pages of pure geological-political-historical-orgasmical enjoyment. It won the Pulitzer Prize and encompasses the rise of the world-oil industry between 1859 to 1991. Suffice it to say there is no easy way to summarize this book. There are some very important events in world oil that everyone should know:

1859-“Colonel” Drake drills the first oil well in Titusville, Pennsylvania
1870-John D. Rockefeller forms Standard Oil Company
1873-Oil fields in Russia open for development
1896-Henry Ford builds his first car
1901-Gusher at Spindletop, Texas discovered: beginning of Sun, Texaco, Gulf
1903-Wright Brothers first flight
1907-First drive-in gasoline station opens in St. Louis, MO
1908-Discovery of oil in modern day Iran
1910-Discovery of “Golden Lane” in Mexico
1911-US Supreme Court rules dissolution of Standard Oil Trust
1914-World War I sees first mechanization of battlefield and need for secure oil
1922-Discovery of oil in Venezuela
1930-Discovery of biggest oil deposit in East Texas
1936-Hitler occupies the Rhineland and ramps up synthetic fuel production
1938-Discovery of oil in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
1938-Mexico nationalizes foreign oil operations
1939-WWII begins with all countries heavily dependent on oil to mobilize soldiers and weaponry
1951-Iran nationalizes foreign oil operations
1952-First Holiday Inn opens (middle-class hitting the open road)
1955-First McDonald’s opens in suburban Chicago
1956-Discovery of oil in Nigeria and Algeria
1960-OPEC founded in Baghdad
1968-Oil discovered in Alaska
1973-Yom Kippur War: Arab Oil Embargo (price per barrel rises from to $2.90 to $11.65)
1975-Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standards introduced in America
1979-Iran overthrow of Shah and Iranian hostage crisis
1981-Panic from problems in Iran send oil from $13 to $34 dollars a barrel
1982-OPEC implements first quotas
1983-First launch of Crude Oil Futures
1989-Exxon Valdez tanker accident
1991-Gulf War motivated by large reserves of oil in Kuwait

That is a lot of dates but they are all very important to understand. In the beginning, America was the main world producer of kerosene which was used for lamps. Uses for oil started to change with advancements in the combustible engine. At the turn of the 20th century, oil was starting to be used for gasoline in automobiles and fuel oil for all types of transportation. World War I was an experimentation in technology and showed countries how crucial it was to have secure access to oil reserves. The outcome of World War II was determined by who had the most oil. Germany and Japan both exhausted their supplies and were helpless to move their war equipment in the last battles. After World War II, the Middle East came center stage in supplying industrialized countries and the US was no longer a supreme exporter of oil. The Middle East would use their oil to increase prices and control foreign policy up until the 1980’s. In the 80s, oil began being traded on the futures market and its price was no longer exclusively controlled by OPEC. Oil is everywhere and has shaped our modern day lifestyle, politics, and even geo-political borders. I highly recommend reading this book because it shines light on our interconnected world and how it was shaped by a single commodity.